【观点】市场底部能否确认？是时候逢低买入了吗？

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观点一：在变化中寻求价值

从周期性角度来看

BTC在2023年全年经历了小牛市，与2019年上半年类似，在2019年6月见顶后回落，并于2019年12月触底（暂不包括“312”黑天鹅事件）。

自2024年1月10日ETF获批以来，BTC仅经历了14天的回调。

此外，山寨币在 2023 年 2 月和 3 月以及 11 月和 12 月再次出现一些增长。

合计起来，它们的上升趋势持续了大约 3-4 个月。

因此，当 BTC 最初从 48,000 美元下跌时，大多数山寨币并没有跟随下跌。

然而，随着比特币持续下跌，山寨币开始回调。

从价格角度来看

2018年底，BTC价格约为3200美元，2019年峰值约为13500美元，涨幅为10300美元。

2019 年 12 月的底部约为 6,500 美元，回调了 7,000 美元，跌幅约为 68%（= 6,500 美元/10,300 美元）。

在这个周期中，最低价约为15,500美元，最高价约为48,500美元。

当前回调低点约为38,500美元，跌幅约为30%（=（48,500-38,500）/（48,500-15,500））。

这还不到上一轮的一半。

当然，今年不会像2020年那样。情感上，BTC的信心在增强，财务上，ETF将带来长期资金流入。

信仰和ETF的影响意味着BTC的底部不会太低，但我们还不能确认是否已经底部。

从周期角度看，可能还有进一步下跌或波动的时间。

视角2：宏观

从宏观上看，目前的情况与2019年下半年非常相似，有两点相似之处：

首先是利率——两者都涉及停止加息，但尚未开始降息。

但是，请注意一个显着差异。

2018年底，明确表示2019年下半年停止缩表，标志着紧缩周期结束。

但目前，我们不知道减少何时可以停止。

美联储2月1日的利率决定不太可能包括降息，但可能会透露一些信号，比如何时停止缩减资产负债表。

此外，一月份的会议纪要将于二月份公布。

这两个日期可能会打破三月份降息的预期。

大约一个月前，3月份降息的概率为80%，但目前为44.3%。

考虑到春节对市场预期的影响，2月份的前景可能并不乐观。

观点三：减半

减半总体是正向的，小蜜峰另一篇文章已经解释过，我就不多说了。

In 2016, there were declines before and after the halving.

Before the 2020 halving, the market was already in a downward trend before the "312" crash. There wasn't a significant increase after the halving either.

Halving means a reduction in production, and we can view this from the perspective of BTC producers, i.e., miners. After the halving, their earnings decrease, and it's likely that BTC will enter a bull market. Therefore, miners might want to increase their mining power by purchasing more mining equipment. The motivation to liquidate assets around the halving could be to buy new mining power.

But this cycle is slightly different. The inscription system has increased miners' earnings, so their willingness to sell BTC might be less than before.

Opinion

Medium Term

Xiao Mi Feng believes that 2024 (mainly the first three quarters) might see a squeezing and converging market trend.

Simply put, two points:

The low won't be too lowThe high won't be too highThe low won't be too low, influenced by faith, ETFs, and inscriptions, which should be understandable without further explanation.

The high won't be too high, mainly due to the macroeconomic environment. In a high-interest and balance sheet reduction environment, market liquidity is limited.

Looking at just the halving expectation or macroeconomic impact might be one-sided. The 2024 market trend is likely a combination of the halving cycle and interest rate cut cycle.

Short Term

BTC is indeed not expensive now, but from a point and cycle perspective, we can't be 100% sure of the bottom.

The macro outlook in February (denial of the March rate cut expectation), Chinese New Year liquidation, and pre-halving are all unfavorable factors for February's market.

Next, we should pay attention to the Federal Reserve meeting in March, as it will introduce a new dot plot, providing further predictions on the timing of rate cuts.

From February to March, watch for a confirmed time to stop the balance sheet reduction. Stopping the reduction means the end of the tightening phase.

About Black Swans

A black swan event is not guaranteed.

One expectation for a black swan is that a crisis erupts at the beginning of rate cuts after a period of high interest rates, as historically seen with the 2000 Internet bubble and the 2008 subprime crisis. This cycle's peak in rate hikes is similar to 2006, and if rate cuts start in September as previously indicated in the dot plot, it would mark one year of high interest, similar to 2007.

However, the extent of balance sheet expansion this time is significant, and even with another 8 months of reduction, it would still be at a relatively loose level.

But a significant decline at the start of rate cuts is likely, not necessarily after, but possibly before, due to market expectations.

Of course, Xiao Mi Feng will leave some room for black swan events, as unexpected as they may be.

Additionally, altcoins are not entirely in sync with Bitcoin's rises and falls, so phased investing seems rational.

About Bottom-Fishing

Xiao Mi Feng believes there might be two opportunities to bottom-fish:

There might be a decline around the halving, combined with the fading expectation of a March rate cut.There might be a decline around the time of rate cuts. History shows that the U.S. stock market often falls during rate cuts (Xiao Mi Feng's subjective interpretation is that the market speculates on expectations before the rate cut, driving up stock prices, then liquidates to repay high-interest loans, and re-borrows when rates fall). This expectation seems to be a consensus among some, so be cautious of a potential drop when rates are cut.We are currently on the path to the first opportunity.

热点：买入 市场 是时候 确认